Why You're Scared of Sharks, Not Vending Machines

You're terrified of:

Shark attacks
Plane crashes
Terrorism
Stranger kidnappings

You're not worried about:

Heart disease
Car accidents
Vending machines
Your own bathtub

The reality:

Annual US deaths:

Shark attacks: ~1
Plane crashes: ~400
Terrorism (average year): ~50
Stranger kidnappings: ~100

Heart disease: ~600,000
Car accidents: ~40,000
Vending machines: ~13
Bathtub accidents: ~340

You're 340 times more likely to die in your bathtub than from a shark.

But you're terrified of sharks and take baths without a second thought.

Why? The Availability Heuristic.

What the Availability Heuristic Actually Is

The Definition

Availability Heuristic: Judging the likelihood of events based on how easily examples come to mind—not on actual probability.

If it's easy to remember: Your brain thinks: "This must happen often."

If it's hard to remember: Your brain thinks: "This must be rare."

The problem: Memorability ≠ Probability

Why This Happens

Your brain takes shortcuts.

Instead of calculating actual probability (hard), it asks: "Can I easily think of examples?"

If yes → Must be common

If no → Must be rare

This worked well in ancestral environments (if you could remember multiple tiger attacks, tigers were probably common).

This works terribly in modern media environments (one shark attack gets broadcast to 300 million people).

Real Examples of the Availability Heuristic

Example 1: The Plane Crash

A plane crashes.

Media coverage: 24/7 for weeks. Every detail analyzed. Video replayed constantly.

Your brain: "Plane crashes happen all the time. Flying is dangerous!"

The reality:

Annual plane crash deaths: ~400 Annual car crash deaths: ~40,000

You're 100x more likely to die driving to the airport than on the plane.

But plane crashes are MEMORABLE. Car crashes are routine.

Result: You're scared of the wrong thing.

Example 2: The Missing Child

News: "Child abducted by stranger!"

Coverage: National manhunt. Weeks of updates. Amber alerts.

Your brain: "Stranger danger! Kids are constantly being kidnapped!"

Parents' reaction: Don't let kids play outside. Constant supervision.

The reality:

Annual stranger abductions: ~100 (in a country of 330 million)

Your child is more likely to:

Die in a car accident (which you cause by driving them everywhere because you're scared of strangers)
Develop health problems from lack of outdoor play
Experience anxiety from overprotective parenting

But stranger abduction is MEMORABLE. Other risks are routine.

Result: Protecting kids from the wrong dangers.

Example 3: The Lottery Winner

News: "Local person wins $50 million lottery!"

You see: Interviews, celebrations, life-changing story.

Your brain: "People win the lottery! It could be me!"

The reality:

Your odds of winning Powerball: 1 in 292 million

You're more likely to:

Be struck by lightning (1 in 15,000)
Become a movie star (1 in 1.5 million)
Be killed by a vending machine (1 in 112 million)

But lottery winners are MEMORABLE. Non-winners are not newsworthy.

Result: You waste money on terrible odds.

Example 4: The Terrorist Attack

Major terrorist attack happens.

Coverage: Months of analysis. Constant updates. Fear everywhere.

Your brain: "Terrorism is a major threat to my safety!"

Result: Massive security spending. Rights infringements. Constant fear.

The reality:

Average annual US terrorism deaths: ~50

You're more likely to die from:

Heart disease: 600,000 (12,000x more likely)
Cancer: 600,000 (12,000x more likely)
Medical errors: 250,000 (5,000x more likely)
Drowning: 4,000 (80x more likely)
Choking: 5,000 (100x more likely)

But terrorism is DRAMATIC and MEMORABLE.

Result: Society spends billions on rare threat while ignoring common ones.

How the Availability Heuristic Distorts Your Thinking

Distortion #1: You Overestimate Dramatic Risks

If it's:

Violent
Unusual
Emotionally intense
Widely publicized

You think it's common.

Even when statistics show it's incredibly rare.

Distortion #2: You Underestimate Boring Risks

If it's:

Gradual
Common
Not newsworthy
Routine

You think it's rare or ignorable.

Even when statistics show it's the leading cause of death.

Example: Heart disease kills 600,000 Americans annually. No one thinks twice about fast food.

Distortion #3: Recent Events Feel More Likely

After a plane crash: "Flying is dangerous!"

Six months later with no crashes: "Flying seems safe."

The actual safety hasn't changed. Your memory has.

Distortion #4: Vivid Stories Override Statistics

"1 in 292 million chance" ← Your brain ignores this

"Meet the winner! Here's their story!" ← Your brain latches onto this

Narrative > Numbers in human psychology.

How Media Exploits the Availability Heuristic

Exploitation #1: "If It Bleeds, It Leads"

Media knows: Dramatic stories get attention.

Result: News is filled with rare, dramatic events (murders, disasters, attacks).

Your perception: These things are everywhere.

Reality: Crime is at historic lows, but media coverage is at historic highs.

Exploitation #2: Repetition Creates False Frequency

One shark attack happens.

Media shows it 1,000 times across 100 channels for 2 weeks.

Your brain: "I've seen SO many shark attacks. They must be common!"

Reality: You saw ONE attack 1,000 times.

Exploitation #3: Emotional Intensity = Memorability

Media maximizes emotional impact:

Dramatic music
Shocking imagery
Emotional interviews
Constant repetition

Result: These events become EXTREMELY memorable.

Your brain: "If I remember it this vividly, it must be important/common."

Exploitation #4: Ignoring Base Rates

News: "Vaping-related illness kills 5 people!"

Your reaction: "Vaping is deadly!"

What they don't show:

Deaths from smoking: 480,000 annually

But smoking deaths are routine. Not newsworthy.

Vaping deaths are novel. Very newsworthy.

Result: You fear the wrong thing.**

How to Overcome the Availability Heuristic

Strategy #1: Ask for Base Rates

When you feel fear about something, ask: "What's the actual statistical probability?"

Not: "Can I remember examples?"

Example:

Fear: Shark attacks Question: "How many people actually die from sharks annually?" Answer: ~1 in 330 million Americans Reality: You're safe.

Strategy #2: Compare to Boring Risks

When evaluating a dramatic risk, compare to routine ones.

Example:

"Should I avoid flying because of crash risk?"

Compare to: Driving to the airport (100x more dangerous)

Result: Flying is the safer choice.

Strategy #3: Recognize Media Selection Bias

Remember: News shows UNUSUAL events, not COMMON ones.

The rule: If it's on the news, it's probably rare.

Common things aren't newsworthy.

Reframe: "This is news BECAUSE it's unusual."

Strategy #4: Seek Out Statistical Thinking

Replace: "I can think of examples"

With: "What do the numbers show?"

Resources:

Mortality statistics
Actuarial tables
Research studies
Base rate data

Strategy #5: Notice Your Own Recent Experiences

After a plane crash: You fear flying more

After a shark attack: You fear beaches more

After a terror attack: You fear crowds more

Ask yourself: "Am I reacting to data or to recent memorable events?"

The Brutal Truth About Risk

What actually kills people:

Heart disease
Cancer
Accidents (mostly cars)
Chronic respiratory disease
Stroke
Diabetes
Pneumonia/flu

What you're scared of:

Terrorism
Shark attacks
Plane crashes
Mass shootings
Stranger kidnappings

The correlation between your fear and actual risk: Almost zero.

Why: Availability Heuristic.

The Correct Risk Assessment

High probability, boring:

Heart disease from poor diet
Death from car accident
Diabetes from lifestyle
Cancer from smoking/sun
Accidental falls in old age

These should terrify you. They don't because they're not memorable.

Low probability, dramatic:

Terrorism
Shark attacks
Plane crashes
Stranger abductions
Lightning strikes

These shouldn't terrify you. They do because they're memorable.

The 4 Tests for Availability Heuristic

1. SIGNAL: Am I judging by memorability or probability?

Can I easily remember examples, or do I know the actual stats?

2. OPPORTUNITY: What does the data actually show?

What's the base rate? What's the real risk?

3. RISK: Am I being influenced by recent/dramatic events?

Is this fear based on news coverage vs reality?

4. AFFECT: What boring risks am I ignoring?

What common dangers am I not thinking about because they're not dramatic?

Check Your Risk Assessment

Not sure if you're assessing risk accurately or falling for availability bias?

Analyze your thinking free with 4Angles →

Input your concern. See how it scores on:

SIGNAL (Are you judging by memorability?)
OPPORTUNITY (What do statistics show?)
RISK (Are you scared of the wrong things?)
AFFECT (What should you actually worry about?)

Get specific guidance on accurate risk assessment.

No signup required. Just instant analysis.

Why You're Scared of Sharks, Not Vending Machines

You're terrified of:

Shark attacks
Plane crashes
Terrorism
Stranger kidnappings

You're not worried about:

Heart disease
Car accidents
Vending machines
Your own bathtub

The reality:

Annual US deaths:

Shark attacks: ~1
Plane crashes: ~400
Terrorism (average year): ~50
Stranger kidnappings: ~100

Heart disease: ~600,000
Car accidents: ~40,000
Vending machines: ~13
Bathtub accidents: ~340

You're 340 times more likely to die in your bathtub than from a shark.

But you're terrified of sharks and take baths without a second thought.

Why? The Availability Heuristic.

What the Availability Heuristic Actually Is

The Definition

Availability Heuristic: Judging the likelihood of events based on how easily examples come to mind—not on actual probability.

If it's easy to remember: Your brain thinks: "This must happen often."

If it's hard to remember: Your brain thinks: "This must be rare."

The problem: Memorability ≠ Probability

Why This Happens

Your brain takes shortcuts.

Instead of calculating actual probability (hard), it asks: "Can I easily think of examples?"

If yes → Must be common

If no → Must be rare

This worked well in ancestral environments (if you could remember multiple tiger attacks, tigers were probably common).

This works terribly in modern media environments (one shark attack gets broadcast to 300 million people).

Real Examples of the Availability Heuristic

Example 1: The Plane Crash

A plane crashes.

Media coverage: 24/7 for weeks. Every detail analyzed. Video replayed constantly.

Your brain: "Plane crashes happen all the time. Flying is dangerous!"

The reality:

Annual plane crash deaths: ~400 Annual car crash deaths: ~40,000

You're 100x more likely to die driving to the airport than on the plane.

But plane crashes are MEMORABLE. Car crashes are routine.

Result: You're scared of the wrong thing.

Example 2: The Missing Child

News: "Child abducted by stranger!"

Coverage: National manhunt. Weeks of updates. Amber alerts.

Your brain: "Stranger danger! Kids are constantly being kidnapped!"

Parents' reaction: Don't let kids play outside. Constant supervision.

The reality:

Annual stranger abductions: ~100 (in a country of 330 million)

Your child is more likely to:

Die in a car accident (which you cause by driving them everywhere because you're scared of strangers)
Develop health problems from lack of outdoor play
Experience anxiety from overprotective parenting

But stranger abduction is MEMORABLE. Other risks are routine.

Result: Protecting kids from the wrong dangers.

Example 3: The Lottery Winner

News: "Local person wins $50 million lottery!"

You see: Interviews, celebrations, life-changing story.

Your brain: "People win the lottery! It could be me!"

The reality:

Your odds of winning Powerball: 1 in 292 million

You're more likely to:

Be struck by lightning (1 in 15,000)
Become a movie star (1 in 1.5 million)
Be killed by a vending machine (1 in 112 million)

But lottery winners are MEMORABLE. Non-winners are not newsworthy.

Result: You waste money on terrible odds.

Example 4: The Terrorist Attack

Major terrorist attack happens.

Coverage: Months of analysis. Constant updates. Fear everywhere.

Your brain: "Terrorism is a major threat to my safety!"

Result: Massive security spending. Rights infringements. Constant fear.

The reality:

Average annual US terrorism deaths: ~50

You're more likely to die from:

Heart disease: 600,000 (12,000x more likely)
Cancer: 600,000 (12,000x more likely)
Medical errors: 250,000 (5,000x more likely)
Drowning: 4,000 (80x more likely)
Choking: 5,000 (100x more likely)

But terrorism is DRAMATIC and MEMORABLE.

Result: Society spends billions on rare threat while ignoring common ones.

How the Availability Heuristic Distorts Your Thinking

Distortion #1: You Overestimate Dramatic Risks

If it's:

Violent
Unusual
Emotionally intense
Widely publicized

You think it's common.

Even when statistics show it's incredibly rare.

Distortion #2: You Underestimate Boring Risks

If it's:

Gradual
Common
Not newsworthy
Routine

You think it's rare or ignorable.

Even when statistics show it's the leading cause of death.

Example: Heart disease kills 600,000 Americans annually. No one thinks twice about fast food.

Distortion #3: Recent Events Feel More Likely

After a plane crash: "Flying is dangerous!"

Six months later with no crashes: "Flying seems safe."

The actual safety hasn't changed. Your memory has.

Distortion #4: Vivid Stories Override Statistics

"1 in 292 million chance" ← Your brain ignores this

"Meet the winner! Here's their story!" ← Your brain latches onto this

Narrative > Numbers in human psychology.

How Media Exploits the Availability Heuristic

Exploitation #1: "If It Bleeds, It Leads"

Media knows: Dramatic stories get attention.

Result: News is filled with rare, dramatic events (murders, disasters, attacks).

Your perception: These things are everywhere.

Reality: Crime is at historic lows, but media coverage is at historic highs.

Exploitation #2: Repetition Creates False Frequency

One shark attack happens.

Media shows it 1,000 times across 100 channels for 2 weeks.

Your brain: "I've seen SO many shark attacks. They must be common!"

Reality: You saw ONE attack 1,000 times.

Exploitation #3: Emotional Intensity = Memorability

Media maximizes emotional impact:

Dramatic music
Shocking imagery
Emotional interviews
Constant repetition

Result: These events become EXTREMELY memorable.

Your brain: "If I remember it this vividly, it must be important/common."

Exploitation #4: Ignoring Base Rates

News: "Vaping-related illness kills 5 people!"

Your reaction: "Vaping is deadly!"

What they don't show:

Deaths from smoking: 480,000 annually

But smoking deaths are routine. Not newsworthy.

Vaping deaths are novel. Very newsworthy.

Result: You fear the wrong thing.**

How to Overcome the Availability Heuristic

Strategy #1: Ask for Base Rates

When you feel fear about something, ask: "What's the actual statistical probability?"

Not: "Can I remember examples?"

Example:

Fear: Shark attacks Question: "How many people actually die from sharks annually?" Answer: ~1 in 330 million Americans Reality: You're safe.

Strategy #2: Compare to Boring Risks

When evaluating a dramatic risk, compare to routine ones.

Example:

"Should I avoid flying because of crash risk?"

Compare to: Driving to the airport (100x more dangerous)

Result: Flying is the safer choice.

Strategy #3: Recognize Media Selection Bias

Remember: News shows UNUSUAL events, not COMMON ones.

The rule: If it's on the news, it's probably rare.

Common things aren't newsworthy.

Reframe: "This is news BECAUSE it's unusual."

Strategy #4: Seek Out Statistical Thinking

Replace: "I can think of examples"

With: "What do the numbers show?"

Resources:

Mortality statistics
Actuarial tables
Research studies
Base rate data

Strategy #5: Notice Your Own Recent Experiences

After a plane crash: You fear flying more

After a shark attack: You fear beaches more

After a terror attack: You fear crowds more

Ask yourself: "Am I reacting to data or to recent memorable events?"

The Brutal Truth About Risk

What actually kills people:

Heart disease
Cancer
Accidents (mostly cars)
Chronic respiratory disease
Stroke
Diabetes
Pneumonia/flu

What you're scared of:

Terrorism
Shark attacks
Plane crashes
Mass shootings
Stranger kidnappings

The correlation between your fear and actual risk: Almost zero.

Why: Availability Heuristic.

The Correct Risk Assessment

High probability, boring:

Heart disease from poor diet
Death from car accident
Diabetes from lifestyle
Cancer from smoking/sun
Accidental falls in old age

These should terrify you. They don't because they're not memorable.

Low probability, dramatic:

Terrorism
Shark attacks
Plane crashes
Stranger abductions
Lightning strikes

These shouldn't terrify you. They do because they're memorable.

The 4 Tests for Availability Heuristic

1. SIGNAL: Am I judging by memorability or probability?

Can I easily remember examples, or do I know the actual stats?

2. OPPORTUNITY: What does the data actually show?

What's the base rate? What's the real risk?

3. RISK: Am I being influenced by recent/dramatic events?

Is this fear based on news coverage vs reality?

4. AFFECT: What boring risks am I ignoring?

What common dangers am I not thinking about because they're not dramatic?

Check Your Risk Assessment

Not sure if you're assessing risk accurately or falling for availability bias?

Analyze your thinking free with 4Angles →

Input your concern. See how it scores on:

SIGNAL (Are you judging by memorability?)
OPPORTUNITY (What do statistics show?)
RISK (Are you scared of the wrong things?)
AFFECT (What should you actually worry about?)

Get specific guidance on accurate risk assessment.

No signup required. Just instant analysis.

The Availability Heuristic: Why You're Terrified of the Wrong Things

Why You're Scared of Sharks, Not Vending Machines

What the Availability Heuristic Actually Is

The Definition

Why This Happens

Real Examples of the Availability Heuristic

Example 1: The Plane Crash

Example 2: The Missing Child

Example 3: The Lottery Winner

Example 4: The Terrorist Attack

How the Availability Heuristic Distorts Your Thinking

Distortion #1: You Overestimate Dramatic Risks

Distortion #2: You Underestimate Boring Risks

Distortion #3: Recent Events Feel More Likely

Distortion #4: Vivid Stories Override Statistics

How Media Exploits the Availability Heuristic

Exploitation #1: "If It Bleeds, It Leads"

Exploitation #2: Repetition Creates False Frequency

Exploitation #3: Emotional Intensity = Memorability

Exploitation #4: Ignoring Base Rates

How to Overcome the Availability Heuristic

Strategy #1: Ask for Base Rates

Strategy #2: Compare to Boring Risks

Strategy #3: Recognize Media Selection Bias

Strategy #4: Seek Out Statistical Thinking

Strategy #5: Notice Your Own Recent Experiences

The Brutal Truth About Risk

The Correct Risk Assessment

The 4 Tests for Availability Heuristic

1. SIGNAL: Am I judging by memorability or probability?

2. OPPORTUNITY: What does the data actually show?

3. RISK: Am I being influenced by recent/dramatic events?

4. AFFECT: What boring risks am I ignoring?

Check Your Risk Assessment

Related Reading

Ready to Analyze Your Message?

The Availability Heuristic: Why You're Terrified of the Wrong Things

Why You're Scared of Sharks, Not Vending Machines

What the Availability Heuristic Actually Is

The Definition

Why This Happens

Real Examples of the Availability Heuristic

Example 1: The Plane Crash

Example 2: The Missing Child

Example 3: The Lottery Winner

Example 4: The Terrorist Attack

How the Availability Heuristic Distorts Your Thinking

Distortion #1: You Overestimate Dramatic Risks

Distortion #2: You Underestimate Boring Risks

Distortion #3: Recent Events Feel More Likely

Distortion #4: Vivid Stories Override Statistics

How Media Exploits the Availability Heuristic

Exploitation #1: "If It Bleeds, It Leads"

Exploitation #2: Repetition Creates False Frequency

Exploitation #3: Emotional Intensity = Memorability

Exploitation #4: Ignoring Base Rates

How to Overcome the Availability Heuristic

Strategy #1: Ask for Base Rates

Strategy #2: Compare to Boring Risks

Strategy #3: Recognize Media Selection Bias

Strategy #4: Seek Out Statistical Thinking

Strategy #5: Notice Your Own Recent Experiences

The Brutal Truth About Risk

The Correct Risk Assessment

The 4 Tests for Availability Heuristic

1. SIGNAL: Am I judging by memorability or probability?

2. OPPORTUNITY: What does the data actually show?

3. RISK: Am I being influenced by recent/dramatic events?

4. AFFECT: What boring risks am I ignoring?

Check Your Risk Assessment

Related Reading

Ready to Analyze Your Message?